Friend,

The RBA today: bad bet or a “once and done” strategy?

If this is a deliberate short sharp hit, it’s high stakes and easy to screw up, but maybe it will work. Here’s what we’re taking from it that you might find useful.

We already know the Reserve Bank isn’t just setting rates. It’s managing permission. It’s also trying to strike a balance. On one side of the “trust ledger” there’s economic necessity. Social licence and leadership survival sit on the other side.

Has our central bank faced into the strategic tension between a quick shock today vs death by a thousand cuts later?

I’ll walk through this as though it was you, a leader trying to decide whether to serve a bucket of bad news up front OR let it seep out (and run the risk that it turns rancid thanks to time and heat).

1. Why “once and done” makes strategic sense

This could be brave, and narrative discipline. A single, decisive move may be designed to:

• Prevent hike fatigue and backlash

  One big lift reduces risk that that a series of rate increases leads to a rolling story of loss of central bank control. Lose control and the RBA will eat away consumer and business confidence before taking a bite out of inflation.

• Anchor expectations

  By tying the move to the 3.8% inflation print, the RBA is trying to box this in as a recalibration and not a return to 2022/23’s tightening cycle. That reduces uncertainty.

• Front-load credibility

  A sharper move now can be dovish later if it works. Fewer hikes, less noise, less political heat and far greater flexibility.

We might be seeing central banking reputation management as much as monetary policy. Why?

2. Social licence is the real constraint

The RBA operates on public consent. No matter how technocratic their language, opinions about them do “affect their effect”. A prolonged hiking cycle comes with ugly risks.

• Political interference

  Sustained backlash invites reviews, reform agendas and “helpful” ministerial commentary. The independence of even the strongest public servants can wilt when voters and MPs are angry.

• Perceived incompetence

  After cutting rates in 2025, the Board probably can’t afford to look like it’s chasing inflation it missed. A series of small hikes now would scream “uncertainty”. By contrast, one firm move still gives space for a fast pivot back to neutral.

Short version: in summary, I think this is about NOT looking incompetent or cruel.

3. The risk of the quick shock

A shock might work but there will be side effects.

Highly leveraged households will feel the pain immediately, with little time to adjust.

Secondly, it’s a strategically fragile narrative path.

Call it “insurance” now, but hike again in May (as NAB predicts), and the story and strategy collapses. Then leadership and RBA credibility may break faster than inflation.

4. The new media reality (and it’s not the AFR)

It’s key that the dominant interpreters of rate decisions are no longer mastheads. They are platforms that win in GEO and search.

When households google “what does this rate rise mean for my mortgage?”, they land on realestate.com.au, comparison sites, brokers’ blogs and algorithm-optimised explainers — not central bank speeches. When I search "RBA news” I also get realestate.com.au.

Why? In part because AI search is the new front page, with SEO-driven platforms outranking traditional media for household-level questions.

The platforms also set sentiment early. By the time broadcast or print reacts, the emotional frame can be already locked in.

While the RBA doesn’t communicate through these platforms, it is interpreted by them.

In this context, the RBA’s “deliberate neutrality” is a double-edged sword.

By refusing to rule out further hikes while simultaneously hinting this is a one-off, the Bank risks sounding evasive rather than independent.

That’s poison for social licence.

What this means for leaders 

This is not a central-bank problem. It’s a leadership problem.

Any organisation making a decision that hits people’s wallets, jobs or identity faces the same reality. Social licence isn’t granted, it’s earned continually through clarity, repetition and follow-through.

For any high-impact decision, leaders should be able to publish the following within one hour*:

1. An explainer

2. Search-led FAQs

3. Scenario framing

4. Executive quote blocks

5. All of which must align language with decisions.

This isn’t PR. It’s risk management.

Not much fun. Now essential.

*If you’re responsible for reputation, regulatory risk or communicating major decisions and want the rest of our half page “60-minute search response pack”, inbox me and I’ll send you something I use in our client work. 

Best,

Carden | she/her (here’s why that matters @work)

On our radar: some of today's RBA reporting

The Australian Financial Review – RBA rates live blog

As a legacy powerhouse of financial reporting, the AFR’s full-day coverage began at 4:30am, and comprehensively outlined the events as they happened. The Review’s live blog featured ongoing commentary from market experts and leaders, giving Australians a clear analysis of the announcement as it happened. However, it didn't get all the attention.

The Daily Telegraph – Chalmers to blame for rise

On the other side of interest rates coverage is The Daily Telegraph, which issued an opinion piece soon after the RBA’s announcement calling treasurer Jim Chalmers a “toxic, gaslighting boyfriend”. The piece in the Telegraph asserted that Chalmers is at fault for the rates increase after ‘pretending the problem was “Liberal debt”’. This opinion piece was at the top of the Telegraph’s home page, right next to its own live blog.

Realestate.com.au - rising coverage of the RBA

The surprising and strong contender in national coverage of the RBA’s interest rates increase is realestate.com.au and its live blog, featuring ongoing coverage from midday until after the announcement. Finding itself at the top of Google search results, the live blog was an unexpected winner in Australia’s search for reliable coverage of the Reserve Bank’s announcement from alternative sources. Australians want to know how their real estate will be impacted by the rates rise - of course, they're drawn to the source.

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