Friend,

I've been watching the Firmus float all year the way you watch a drunk teeter towards a glass door, then hit it.

We all now know the story (PR) got a long way ahead of the product, and the key person’s credibility. Right now, I think the take-home hasn't changed since January: do the right thing. And then, all things being equal, if you don’t screw up the PR, you’ll be okay.

The right thing is NOT to let the marketing misrepresent reality. But so quickly our media jumped on the bandwagon. This is not a Firmus blame-game post. Everyone from the tabloids to Rampart to the AFR and ABC are doing that now…. cute because they helped create the problem!

Rather than just blame I offer a short, post-(non-IPO)-mortem PR take-home thought.

1. The arc, in dollars

A year ago, Nvidia backed a $330 million raise valuing Firmus at ~ $1.85 billion. By November 2025 it was ~ $6 billion, by April 2026 ~ $8 billion. About then co-founder Curtis made the Rich List and gave Rampart an interview about redemption and "chapter two". Masterful PR that worked. Fast forward to last week and the float was priced at $43.7 billion, the biggest since Telstra.

Problem? The numbers came from either a private round or a press release. That’s the real story here, IMO.

The public and our saviours, the fundies (not tongue-in-cheek) or public market, were the first people to not take all this on trust.

2. Firmus blamed volatility, then the market. The market blamed Firmus!

The Nightly's Tom Richardson put it plainly: the bankers cut the price from $11 to $9 to $8 to $5.50, and still no one bought. You can't discount your way out of a credibility gap. One fund manager said they were avoiding it at any price. Then came the second mistake. Firmus blamed volatility and the local market. By Monday the fund managers were answering in print, and a Lib senator had written to ASIC. When your audience calls BS, the one move that gets you smacked hard is telling them they got it wrong without proof.

3. The emperor walked down the main street

Cynical me wants to say, “let the record show he was starkers, and the mainstream media skipped happily behind him for months, with Rich List placings and the redemption interviews and "biggest float since Telstra" on repeat, while the bankers floated a US$90 billion number.” The people who finally called it were the punters and the fund managers.

Tasmanians had been asking awkward questions since June, about water and power and whether anyone had consulted them, and what they got in reply was three sports sponsorships. The fund managers read the prospectus and found a $10 billion debt facility described in a sentence, 82 per cent of forecast profit sitting in Indonesia and Malaysia, and a claim it could build at half its competitors' cost with no proof that scaled. Both audiences read the same gap, and the ones with the least money read it first. WOW.

So what?

Before your next big announcement, find your sceptics, and show them your evidence. If it isn't ready, the story can wait. It's worth more when it's true. It’s a cluster when it’s not.

Best,

Carden | she/her (here’s why that matters @work)

On our radar:

The other big stories this week

Oliver Curtis’s mask drops under questioning in Singapore

Firmus co-founder Oliver Curtis faced questions over whether investors were misled following the collapse of the company’s $44 billion ASX IPO, reacting angrily when challenged. The article alleges his sensitivity to criticism contributed to the failed listing, despite earlier claims of strong investor demand.

Glencore pins hopes on ASX debut to close BHP valuation gap

Glencore will begin trading on the ASX on Wednesday through CHESS Depositary Interests, aiming to attract $5 billion in investment over the next year. The listing is expected to boost investor demand and recognition, with Glencore targeting ASX 100 inclusion within one to two years.

‘Renewed focus’ on debt and deficit key to fighting inflation: IMF

The IMF has urged Australia to prioritise budget repair and rein in public debt to help curb inflation, warning against poorly targeted spending and broad tax cuts. It downgraded Australia’s 2027 economic growth forecast to 1.6% and expects unemployment to reach 4.7%. The Albanese government maintains it is addressing fiscal pressures through savings and productivity reforms.

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