Friend,

Some leaders, and their advisors, can achieve the seemingly impossible task of turning a crisis into an opportunity.

One way is to create a circuit breaker.

Watching the US, I’m reminded political leadership is good theatre. It’s strategically smart to find and attack a common enemy. Plus, the right circuit breaker can turn a reputation crisis around.

Nasty, cynical me. Nevertheless, I’m thinking starting a war is a great way to draw attention away from horrific news at home that might cost you your leadership. See the articles below for a policy expert who thinks this as well.

The circuit breaker as a crisis management strategy can be powerful. Three things define a circuit breaker.

1. It’s leader driven.
2. It shifts the narrative.
3. It signals decisive action that “ends a chapter.”

In corporate crises, done well, it turns a day that starts with “CEO accused of sexual harassment by CIO” into “Board acts swiftly to exit CEO” by close of business.

Same day, same facts, very different trajectory.

We’ve seen it with banks during major stuff ups: front foot, apology, remediation. The trick is to show visible leadership and remove any spin. Then, almost magically, media moves on because the issue is just a news event, not a reputation dumpster fire fuelled by Board dillydallying or weakness.

Yes, it’s high stakes and easy to screw up.

Let’s zoom out and back to the world stage.

We’ve just seen the leader of the free world start a war in the middle of potentially fatal scrutiny at home. 

Geopolitics… or a circuit breaker? The mechanics are familiar. 

The context for the leader was investigations, legal exposure, sliding polls, fracturing party unity. Plus some upwards trending news and voter anger. 

The circuit breaker here is a decisive, high-drama move that reset the news cycle overnight.  

Suddenly we’re talking about airstrikes, dead leaders, and nation sovereignty instead of selective redactions, subpoenas, and courtrooms. 

Narrative reversed. 

There’s just one small problem.  

In business, a circuit breaker only works if it is seen as the right thing. Like justice served, accountability taken, a remedy for hard or real action on what was wrong. To work, it must build confidence across stakeholders, especially staff, regulators, media, and customers.

There’s a moral centre to it. 

If it’s just distraction or a faux solution the original issue returns, usually bigger and badder. 

In politics, the math is simpler. A war doesn’t need unanimous approval; it just needs to dominate attention and deprive the other (scandal) fire of oxygen.

Short term, that can work. Media bandwidth is finite. Editors chase the biggest news.

But if your stakeholders (voters, markets, or allies) sense manipulation rather than necessity, the “circuit breaker” becomes fire accelerant, not a dampener.

For CEOs watching from the sidelines, there’s a lesson.  

You cannot bomb your way out of a governance problem. 

In our world, your circuit breaker must: 

• Take ownership (even if the root cause wasn’t yours).
• Demonstrate humility.
• Offer tangible remediation.
• Be delivered with discipline and authenticity. 

Anything else is theatre because reputation isn’t reset by distraction. It’s reset by action that stakeholders judge as fair, necessary and proportionate. 

Otherwise, the story doesn’t end. 

It just waits.

Join us here to continue the conversation.

Best,

Carden | she/her (here’s why that matters @work)

On our radar:

The Guardian - Starting a war abroad to distract from scandals at home

Political analysis sees President Trump's new war against Iran as a campaign that mirrors the tragedy and miscalculation of Bush's Iraq War 23 years prior. However, this time, it's a humanitarian crisis resulting from fears of domestic pressure, where falling approval ratings, controversial immigration policy, and legal troubles have driven the United States into a new Middle Eastern conflict.

ABC - Too early to predict the conflict's impact

Rapid developments in the escalating Middle East conflict have resulted in a spike in global oil prices, but RBA governor Michele Bullock warned that a more comprehensive view of the impact on Australia is too early to predict. This comes as President Trump has threatened another “big wave” of strikes, signalling further humanitarian crisis and market volatility if the conflict continues.

AFR - Energy and defence remain the only winners

Ongoing strikes between Iran, Israel, and the United States – as well as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – have seen global oil prices spiking with further projected impact on the market. Meanwhile, many economists are cynically tipping energy producers, defence contractors, and cybersecurity firms as the only market winners out of the political and humanitarian crisis.

The Australian - Bond markets derailed by conflict

Another disruption domestically amidst the Middle East conflict is the derailing of Australia’s bond market, just a week after a successful raising from CBA. Markets have reported the axing of multiple planned deals after the conflict broke out over the weekend. Overall volatility as the conflict expands also looks to threaten the development of mergers and acquisitions.

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This week's market movers

Big plays, bold bets, and (occasional) unconfirmed speculation

Bullock puts March rate rise back on the table - RBA Governor Bullock has pushed back against assumed quarterly evaluations, claiming that the RBA would consider all possibilities, including a March rate rise.

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Australian credit fund Realm exposed to UK MFS collapse - Melbourne fixed income firm Realm Investment House has revealed exposure to the collapsed UK firm Market Financial Solutions. It asserted that the exposure was minimal and at a mezzanine level.