Friend,

ANZ’s whopping $240M ASIC penalty is another signal the social contract has changed and your regulatory risk is higher. For boards and executives, the message is simple: the more valuable your brand or reputation, the more at risk you are.

This comes at the same time offshore players increasingly tell us Australia is attractive as a destination in part due to “strong rule of law”. Thanks Trump 🤨. That said, we’re not exactly showing it’s going to be an easy entry.

The issue for local established players is that community expectations have hardened and the regulators’ posture is now far more aggressive. They bark and they really do bite - gone are the days of being called toothless watch puppies by Stephen Mayne and Rear Window.

Many argue this is overdue. We still see blind spots. Think market leaks, where a bruised ASX hasn’t really forced the market (especially wrt M&A) to lift its game, and the awful First Guardian and Shield matter which could have been stopped.

It does seem true our regulators chase scalps in part for signalling reasons. So does the AFR’s Rear Window.

Valuable brands are the most tempting targets. The bigger your brand, the further you have to potentially fall.

On our radar

Policy and regulatory developments that may shape your risk or return

ANZ in crisis mode

Hit with a record $240 million fine for misconduct from bond trading to deceased estates, ANZ now faces the FSU at Fair Work over plans to axe ~3,500 staff, after a bungled email told workers they were already sacked. Union leaders call it a “bank in crisis,” as cultural, operational and reputational risks pile up under its new CEO.

Labor’s 2035 climate target

Labor will this week set Australia’s next emissions goal, tipped at a 65–75% cut by 2035, alongside the nation’s first climate risk assessment. Expect big implications for capital flows, regulation and investment strategy as modelling warns of major risks to energy, infrastructure and financial systems.

UNSW signs Australia’s biggest Edu AI deal
UNSW will roll out ChatGPT Edu to 10,000 staff — Australia’s biggest AI education deal. Alongside the RBA’s RBAPubChat, it shows secure, ring-fenced AI is moving from pilot project to core institutional infrastructure. ***We’re making sure you’re not left behind either. If you missed last week’s email, explore our exclusive AI offer and Counsel (CARE) - our own model blending 21 years of BlueChip expertise with AI efficiency. Reply to learn more.***

This week's market movers

Big plays, bold bets, and (occasional) unconfirmed speculation

• Super shake-up Speculation is mounting that a dedicated super regulator could be in the works, as cracks widen in the $4.2 trillion system.
• Cash-flow tax backlash Business and tax advisers warn the Productivity Commission’s proposed 5% cash-flow tax would add complexity, penalise large firms, and risk driving investment offshore.

• Super Retail scandal The CEO of Super Retail Group has been sacked and stripped of bonuses over an alleged undisclosed relationship, sending shares down on Tuesday and dragging the board into a multimillion-dollar legal fight.

Best,

Carden | she/her (here’s why that matters @work) 

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